Possible scenario
Lula Circle Implicated
20% Chance
New testimony or documentary evidence links the alleged scheme operator to people closer to Lula's political circle. This would not automatically implicate Lula personally, but it would escalate the case from a banker-linked scandal into a presidency-level political risk event.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.1%
- Business Services -0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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