Possible scenario
Paxton Pulls Away
15% Chance
The one-point poll lead becomes the start of a late Republican consolidation rather than a true toss-up. Talarico's call to dismantle capitalism gives Paxton and national Republicans a simple attack line that dominates the final weeks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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