Possible scenario
Paxton Narrow Victory
43% Chance
Ken Paxton remains the slight favorite because Texas still leans Republican statewide and the new poll suggests James Talarico's prior lead has eroded after his anti-capitalism remarks. The race stays highly competitive, but GOP turnout and national Republican spending are enough to hold the seat.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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