Possible scenario
Talarico Narrow Upset
34% Chance
Talarico still has a realistic upset path because he has outraised Paxton, dominated late advertising, and already led in a prior poll. If Democratic enthusiasm remains high and Paxton's personal controversies resurface, a narrow Democratic pickup in Texas is plausible.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Finance -0.4%
- Utilities +0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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