Possible scenario
US Enforces Truce
21% Chance
Washington tries to salvage the energy truce by threatening consequences for both Russia and Ukraine. This path is plausible because Trump has political ownership of the truce and both sides may want to avoid alienating the United States.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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