Possible scenario
Limited Export Disruption
42% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the St. Petersburg strike causes temporary loading delays but does not remove the full 300,000 bpd from the market. Russia has incentives to keep diesel and fuel-oil exports moving through Baltic infrastructure after recently lifting export volumes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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