Possible scenario
Energy War Escalates
27% Chance
Both sides treat the truce as effectively broken and target energy logistics again. The escalation remains below a direct NATO confrontation, but markets respond to the risk of repeated disruption to Russian exports and Ukrainian power supply.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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