Possible scenario
Localized Gaza Escalation
25% Chance
Hamas or affiliated militants respond with fire or attempted attacks, prompting Israel to conduct additional raids and airstrikes inside Gaza. The ceasefire formally survives, but enforcement operations become more frequent and politically harder for mediators to contain.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.