Ceasefire Mostly Holds

The most likely path is that Israel frames the killings as targeted enforcement against individuals who violated the ceasefire, while Hamas protests but avoids a broad response. Egypt, Qatar, and the United States press both sides to keep the January 2025 ceasefire intact despite repeated accusations of violations.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.