Narrow Democratic Flip

House Majority PAC’s $70.85 million late buy reinforces the most likely outcome: Democrats convert a modest generic-ballot edge into a narrow House majority. The scale of spending across 51 races suggests Democrats are defending vulnerable incumbents while pressing enough Biden-leaning and suburban districts to oust Mike Johnson’s majority.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.