Possible scenario
Policy Escalation
20% Chance
A plausible downside path is renewed U.S.-China policy pressure, building on the 2023 and 2025 AI export restrictions. Even without immediate new rules, reports of tougher enforcement or broader licensing reviews could extend pressure on chipmakers with China exposure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -3.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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