Possible scenario
Continued De-Rating
30% Chance
The losing streak continues as investors reduce exposure to AI hardware after the prior $1 trillion market-value loss. The driver is not a single company failure but a sector-wide reassessment of AI capital-spending durability and valuation multiples.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.8%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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