Possible scenario
Orderly Stabilization
35% Chance
The most likely path is a short-term stabilization after a steep sector drawdown, as investors distinguish between crowded AI positioning and still-strong demand for leading accelerators. Dip-buying appears first in the highest-quality chip names, while lower-growth semiconductor stocks remain vulnerable.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.1%
Tickers
- +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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