Possible scenario
Sovereignty Crisis Escalates
27% Chance
Land operations create a sharper diplomatic crisis if a strike crosses disputed jurisdictional lines, causes civilian casualties, or draws in Venezuela-linked networks. This would remain below a state-on-state war scenario but would still be a material geopolitical escalation for the region.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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