Possible scenario
Mission Creep Emerges
18% Chance
The campaign avoids an immediate diplomatic rupture but expands as cartels shift routes and disperse assets. This creates a longer counter-network mission involving drones, signals intelligence, maritime patrol, and partner-force training.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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