Possible scenario
Partnered Limited Campaign
42% Chance
The most likely path is a contained land campaign conducted with host-nation consent, focused on labs, airstrips, logistics nodes, and cartel leadership compounds. Washington keeps the operation framed as counter-narcotics rather than regime-change or counterinsurgency, limiting market spillovers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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