Possible scenario
Kyiv Defies Washington
30% Chance
Ukraine refuses to trade territory for continued U.S. aid, arguing that any concession would reward Russian annexation and weaken future deterrence. The Trump administration responds by slowing or partially suspending intelligence sharing, air-defense deliveries, or replenishment funding.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.9%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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