Possible scenario
Europe Backfills Ukraine
20% Chance
European governments move to prevent a collapse in Ukrainian support by expanding bilateral aid, procurement, and ammunition financing. This reduces the immediate battlefield risk but deepens the strategic split between Washington and European NATO members.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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