Possible scenario
Coerced Donbas Freeze
35% Chance
Kyiv reluctantly enters talks on a de facto freeze along Russian-held lines in Donetsk and Luhansk to preserve U.S. military and intelligence support. The most likely version avoids formal recognition of Russian sovereignty but accepts that Donbas will remain outside Kyiv’s control for the foreseeable future.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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