Export Controls Harden

45%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.9%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Washington treats Oracle’s cancellation as the model for enforcing AI chip restrictions through cloud access, not just physical exports. Tencent remains cut off from the 100,000-GPU lease and other U.S.-linked providers avoid similar China-facing arrangements.

What it moves

Technology−2.2%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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