Possible scenario
Incident Stays Local
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the punch is treated as a localized assault rather than a nationally destabilizing event. San Antonio police, the Bexar County District Attorney, the Secret Service, and the Trump campaign move to contain the story through routine legal and security steps.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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