Possible scenario
Files Fight Deepens
25% Chance
The rally violence becomes another data point in the broader dispute over the Epstein files and the Justice Department's handling of releases. Republican factions use the incident to argue either that Trump is being unfairly targeted or that the administration has mishandled transparency demands.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.