Possible scenario
Contained Missile Exchanges
42% Chance
The most likely path is a continued but bounded exchange: Houthi forces keep firing drones and missiles at Riyadh while Saudi air defenses prevent mass-casualty strikes. Saudi Arabia avoids a major ground escalation but increases strikes on launch sites in Yemen.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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