Possible scenario
Infrastructure Targeting Escalates
22% Chance
The Houthis may try to regain leverage by shifting from symbolic strikes on Riyadh toward airports, energy infrastructure, or utilities. Even limited damage to Saudi oil or transport infrastructure would carry larger market consequences than the current residential debris incident.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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