Possible scenario
Negotiated De-escalation Resumes
26% Chance
Oman and the UN use the civilian injuries in Riyadh to push both sides back toward talks. Riyadh may accept a narrow pause focused on missile attacks and border security while leaving territorial disputes unresolved.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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