Fiscal Brinkmanship Returns

The election result hardens positions before funding and debt-limit deadlines, raising the risk of a government shutdown or market-unfriendly fiscal confrontation. This is the most negative near-term market path, but shocks remain below crisis scale because the immediate news is an election result rather than an actual default or shutdown.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.