Possible scenario
Zahedan Clampdown Holds
45% Chance
Iran's security services contain the People's Fighters Front cells in Zahedan through arrests, checkpoints, and intelligence raids. The violence remains concentrated in Sistan and Baluchestan, with no meaningful spillover into energy infrastructure or wider regional markets.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.