Possible scenario
Localized Insurgency Persists
28% Chance
Militants remain capable of small attacks despite Iranian raids, keeping Sistan and Baluchestan unstable. Tehran reinforces the province but avoids actions that would threaten regional trade or energy flows.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.