Possible scenario
Pakistan Border Spillover
17% Chance
Tehran publicly links the Zahedan militants to safe havens across the Pakistani border, reviving the pattern seen in January 2024. Both Iran and Pakistan try to avoid a full diplomatic rupture, but cross-border accusations raise regional risk premiums modestly.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.