Possible scenario
Gray-Zone NATO Probing
45% Chance
Russia most likely continues calibrated incursions with drones, missiles or airspace violations that test NATO response times while staying below an unmistakable war threshold. Poland, Romania and the Baltic states push for stronger air defenses, but NATO avoids direct retaliation against Russian territory.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.2%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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