Possible scenario
Deterrence Holds
25% Chance
A visible NATO reinforcement package and private warnings to Moscow reduce the chance of a near-term territorial strike. Russia continues pressure on Ukraine but avoids a clear test of Article 5, judging the military and political risks too high.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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