Possible scenario
Cyber Sabotage Escalates
20% Chance
Rather than a visible missile or drone strike, Russia tests NATO through deniable cyber operations and sabotage against energy, transport or telecom infrastructure. This path offers Moscow ambiguity while forcing NATO to decide whether non-kinetic attacks can trigger collective defense measures.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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