Possible scenario
Rapid Breakthrough
20% Chance
Ansarallah may exploit momentum from cutting the Taiz-Al-Misrakh highway and push into the city edge before coalition forces can regroup. A partial urban breakthrough would be a major local battlefield gain, though not necessarily a global macro event unless it spills into Red Sea or Gulf infrastructure risk.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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