Possible scenario
Humanitarian Pause
24% Chance
Omani and UN channels could press both sides to avoid a full urban siege that would worsen civilian casualties and international scrutiny. A narrow humanitarian arrangement is plausible because neither side may want the political cost of a catastrophic Taiz blockade.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.