Possible scenario
Encirclement Hardens
42% Chance
Ansarallah is most likely to consolidate gains around Taiz without immediately taking the city center. The coalition and local anti-Houthi forces retain defensive pockets, but the loss of Jabal Habashi and the Taiz-Al-Misrakh highway leaves Taiz increasingly dependent on sporadic, contested access.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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