Possible scenario
Inquiry Broadens
20% Chance
The blame fight strengthens calls for a formal state commission of inquiry into pre-October 7 warnings. The process becomes broader than Avi Gil and covers the Prime Minister's Office, National Security Council, IDF intelligence, and diplomatic channels.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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