Possible scenario
Gil Pushes Back
30% Chance
Avi Gil or allied former officials challenge Netanyahu's version with more specific testimony about warning flows before October 7. This raises the odds of a deeper accountability process and modestly increases Israeli political-risk premia.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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