Possible scenario
Israeli Coalition Defies
18% Chance
Right-wing coalition figures may use the U.S. condemnation to rally their base and accelerate settlement-related measures. Netanyahu would then face renewed friction with Trump, who has already said he would block West Bank annexation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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