Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Washington keeps the response at the diplomatic and law-enforcement level, pressing Israel to prosecute the Jalud attackers without changing core U.S.-Israel policy. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has incentives to reassure President Trump while avoiding a coalition rupture with Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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