Possible scenario
Targeted U.S. Sanctions
25% Chance
The Trump administration could move from condemnation to targeted penalties, consistent with prior U.S. visa restrictions and sanctions against violent settlers. This would likely focus on named individuals, outposts, or fundraising networks rather than the Israeli government.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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