Possible scenario
Political Deadlock Persists
20% Chance
Neither Netanyahu nor the opposition converts the U.S. Republican split into a decisive electoral advantage. Israel remains stuck with a caretaker government and another round of bargaining or elections.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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