Possible scenario
Opposition Coalition Advances
38% Chance
Trump's endorsement does not move enough right-wing or undecided voters, while Vance's neutrality reinforces the perception that Netanyahu no longer commands unified Republican backing. A center-right and centrist anti-Netanyahu bloc gains the clearest path to forming the next government.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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