Possible scenario
Netanyahu Narrowly Survives
27% Chance
Despite the weak polling response to Trump's endorsement, Netanyahu consolidates enough right-wing voters by warning against a fragmented opposition and a less reliable U.S. relationship. Vance's refusal to endorse limits the upside but does not prevent a narrow pro-Netanyahu majority.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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