Possible scenario
Yen Pressure Returns
20% Chance
Because the PMI miss comes after a record yen-support operation in August and no recent intervention by September 30, currency traders may test the authorities again. A softer services reading reduces confidence that the Bank of Japan can tighten quickly.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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