Possible scenario
Soft Patch Contained
40% Chance
The final September services PMI is weaker than the flash estimate but remains in expansion territory, suggesting a moderation rather than a contraction. Strong inbound tourism and still-resilient Asian demand keep investors from treating the release as a turning point.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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