Possible scenario
BOJ Remains Patient
30% Chance
The Bank of Japan is likely to treat the services PMI as evidence that higher import costs and a weak yen are beginning to weigh on demand. Still, Tokyo inflation at 2.7% prevents a clear dovish turn, keeping policy expectations finely balanced.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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