GOP Late Catch-Up

30%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The Democratic lead proves partly structural because Democrats vote earlier and Republicans still concentrate on late mail returns and Election Day ballots. Trump’s October push to normalize Republican mail voting helps the GOP narrow the national gap in Florida, Ohio, Texas and parts of the Sun Belt.

What it moves

Energy+0.6%
Finance+0.5%
10-year Treasury yield▲ up
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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