Dem Lead Persists

40%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The 49-29 Democratic advantage in 10.32 million early votes reflects real enthusiasm and durable turnout gains rather than only vote-method timing. Republicans improve their share as Election Day nears, but Democrats retain a meaningful banked-vote cushion in key House battlegrounds.

What it moves

Utilities+0.4%
Energy−0.3%
Market volatility▼ down
10-year Treasury yield▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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