Possible scenario
Runoff Legitimacy Fight
18% Chance
A tight runoff turns the focus to Brazil's electoral court, electronic voting system and street mobilization. Market direction becomes less about ideology and more about whether institutions can keep the contest orderly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.3%
- Utilities -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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