Possible scenario
Bolsonaro Momentum Holds
42% Chance
Flávio Bolsonaro consolidates his first-round advantage as anti-Lula voters, agribusiness groups and center-right parties coalesce behind him. Markets continue to price a higher probability of privatizations, looser state intervention and a more orthodox economic team.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +2.0%
- Utilities +1.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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